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Evolving foresight in a small transition economy
Author(s) -
Havas Attila
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.855
Subject(s) - futures studies , delphi method , delphi , transition (genetics) , scale (ratio) , process (computing) , regional science , political science , economics , economy , economic growth , computer science , sociology , geography , biochemistry , chemistry , operating system , cartography , artificial intelligence , gene
Hungary launched its first Technology Foresight Programme (TEP) in 1997. This was a holistic foresight programme, based on panel activities and a large‐scale Delphi survey, with a strong emphasis on socio‐economic needs. The paper discusses why a foresight exercise is relevant to a transition country, then describes what was done (organization, methods and results), and how the process evolved in Hungary. Policy conclusions, methodological lessons and questions for further research are also offered. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.