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Testing for (common) stochastic trends in the presence of structural breaks
Author(s) -
Busetti Fabio
Publication year - 2002
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.813
Subject(s) - multivariate statistics , test statistic , econometrics , mathematics , statistic , asymptotic distribution , statistics , statistical hypothesis testing , asymptotic analysis , invariant (physics) , series (stratigraphy) , paleontology , estimator , mathematical physics , biology
This paper considers the problem of testing for the presence of stochastic trends in multivariate time series with structural breaks. The breakpoints are assumed to be known. The testing framework is the multivariate locally best invariant test and the common trend test of Nyblom and Harvey (2000). The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are derived under a specification of the deterministic component which allows for structural breaks. Asymptotic critical values are provided for the case of a single breakpoint. A modified statistic is then proposed, the asymptotic distribution of which is independent of the breakpoint location and belongs to the Cramér‐von Mises family. This modification is particularly advantageous in the case of multiple breakpoints. It is also shown that the asymptotic distributions of the test statistics are unchanged when seasonal dummy variables and/or weakly dependent exogenous regressors are included. Finally, as an example, the tests are applied to UK macroeconomic data and to data on road casualties in Great Britain. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.