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Modifying quantitative forecasts of livestock production using expert judgments: An application to the australian lamb industry
Author(s) -
Vere D. T.,
Griffith G. R.
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980140505
Subject(s) - production (economics) , context (archaeology) , econometric model , commodity , econometrics , value (mathematics) , livestock , economics , agriculture , term (time) , computer science , microeconomics , finance , paleontology , ecology , physics , quantum mechanics , machine learning , biology
The judgmental modification of quantitative forecasts has become increasingly adopted in the production of agricultural commodity outlook information. Such modifications allow current period information to be incorporated into the forecast value, and ensure that the forecast is realistic in the context of current industry trends. This paper investigates the potential value of this approach in production forecasting in the Australian lamb industry. Several individual and composite econometric models were used to forecast a lamb‐slaughtering series with a selected forecast being given to a panel of lamb industry specialists for consideration and modification. The results demonstrate that this approach offers considerable accuracy advantages in the short‐term forecasting of livestock market variables, such as slaughtering, whose values can be strongly influenced by current industry conditions.