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Are economic forecasts valuable?
Author(s) -
Stekler H. O.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980130602
Subject(s) - quarter (canadian coin) , econometrics , consensus forecast , economics , computer science , geography , archaeology
A previous study questioned whether the published forecasts of one forecasting organization were valuable to users. A forecast was considered valuable if it differed significantly from a naive model in the sense of predicting the direction of change. The results indicated that it was not possible to show that the one‐quarter‐ahead predictions were valuable. However, the current‐quarter forecasts were valuable. This paper examines whether the results are robust. The forecasts of two additional organizations were examined and the time period was extended. The results are generally robust.