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On the use of dispersion measures from NAPM surveys in business cycle forecasting
Author(s) -
Dasgupta Susmita,
Lahiri Kajal
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980120306
Subject(s) - econometrics , business cycle , dispersion (optics) , explanatory power , purchasing , purchasing power , order (exchange) , consensus forecast , economics , statistics , computer science , mathematics , operations management , finance , philosophy , physics , epistemology , keynesian economics , optics
Qualitative survey data on changes in production, inventory, new order, and employment collected every month by the National Association of Purchasing Managers are analysed over 1948–90. The Probability method we use generates time‐series estimates of cross‐section variabilities across firms. It is shown that these diffusion measures have additional explanatory power in the prediction of business cycle turning points.