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Thinking about the future: A cognitive perspective
Author(s) -
Klayman Joshua,
Schoemaker Paul J. H.
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980120208
Subject(s) - cognition , argumentation theory , inference , management science , computer science , strengths and weaknesses , perspective (graphical) , strategic planning , representation (politics) , strategic thinking , cognitive map , process management , knowledge management , psychology , artificial intelligence , epistemology , management , business , political science , social psychology , economics , politics , philosophy , neuroscience , law
The promises and challenges of a cognitive approach to strategic planning and subjective forecasting are examined. Strategic thinking is viewed as comprising three components: (1) knowledge base, (2) problem representation, and (3) inference processes linking the first two. Analysis of these components, it is argued, can be an important aid to understanding and guiding managerial problem solving. We review several techniques for modeling strategic thinking and planning, including network representations, production systems, causal maps, and analyses of argumentation. We consider the strengths and weaknesses of different cognitive analysis techniques and discuss how they might be implemented. Much more experience and refinement will be needed to produce well‐specified procedures for cognitive analysis of planning. We conclude, however, that even at the current stage of development, significant benefits can accrue from a cognitive approach to strategic planning.