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A note on diagrams for turning‐point diagnostics
Author(s) -
Jarrell Stephen B.,
Stanley T. D.
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980110406
Subject(s) - diagram , ambiguity , realization (probability) , point (geometry) , computer science , turning point , presentation (obstetrics) , algorithm , econometrics , statistics , mathematics , geometry , physics , medicine , acoustics , period (music) , radiology , database , programming language
A new diagram for discriminating a forecasting technique's history with respect to the two types of turning‐point errors, missed turns and false signals is presented. This diagram extends Theil's original prediction‐realization (P‐R) presentation so that each of the four quadrants and the axes locates a distinct type of forecasting error or correct forecast, thus reducing much of the former ambiguity. This improvement is accomplished without the loss of any information.