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Modelling peak electricity demand
Author(s) -
Engle Robert F.,
Mustafa Chowdhury,
Rice John
Publication year - 1992
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980110306
Subject(s) - electricity demand , bivariate analysis , econometrics , electricity , sample (material) , stochastic modelling , environmental science , economics , statistics , mathematics , electricity generation , power (physics) , engineering , physics , chemistry , quantum mechanics , chromatography , electrical engineering
Abstract This paper estimates a forecasting equation for the hourly peak electricity demand one day in the future. The models incorporate deterministic influences such as holidays, stochastic influences such as average loads by building bivariate models, and exogenous influences such as the weather which is given a careful non‐linear formulation. Out‐of‐sample comparisons are made using an additional year of data.