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Models for the assessment of the value of forecast information
Author(s) -
Lawrence David B.
Publication year - 1991
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980100406
Subject(s) - valuation (finance) , normative , value (mathematics) , econometrics , value of information , computer science , interpretation (philosophy) , economics , operations research , actuarial science , artificial intelligence , mathematics , accounting , machine learning , philosophy , epistemology , programming language
Abstract This paper reviews, extends and applies alternative normative decision models for the assessment of the value of forecast information, concentrating primarily on the factors influencing the tractability of assessment and interpretation in specific decision problems. As an empirical illustration of t lhe models, the paper presents a valuation analysis of the published judgmental price forecasts of a veteran analyst of the hog market to a perfectly competitive farm enterprise.