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Invited review combining forecasts—twenty years later
Author(s) -
Granger C. W. J.
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980080303
Subject(s) - quantile , econometrics , relevance (law) , simple (philosophy) , interpretation (philosophy) , computer science , economics , epistemology , philosophy , political science , law , programming language
The combination of forecasts is a simple, pragmatic and sensible way to possibly produce better forecasts. Simple extensions of the original idea involve the use of various available ‘forecasts’ even if some are rather inefficient. Some unsolved questions relate to combining forecasts with horizons longer than one period. More complicated extensions are associated with ‘encompassing’ and the combination of confidence intervals or quantiles. The relevance of information sets is emphasized in both the underlying theory and the interpretation of combinations.