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Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal eetension
Author(s) -
Mathews Brian P.,
Diamantopoulos A.
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980080206
Subject(s) - consensus forecast , econometrics , term (time) , actuarial science , computer science , economics , quantum mechanics , physics
When quantitative models are used for short‐term multi‐item sales forecasts it is possible that the managers who use such forecasts may disagree with at least some of the estimates obtained, and wish to change them so that they become more consistent with their own (subjective) evaluation of the marketplace. This study reports on an analysis of the effectiveness of judgemental revision of sales forecasts over six quarterly forecasting periods. The results give general support for the practice of forecast manipulation as a means of improving forecasting accuracy. It is also observed that the effectiveness of revision activity varies across different time periods.