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Feedback forecasting games: An overview
Author(s) -
Bowden Roger J.
Publication year - 1989
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980080205
Subject(s) - computer science , iterated function , process (computing) , range (aeronautics) , outcome (game theory) , event (particle physics) , artificial intelligence , mathematical economics , economics , mathematics , mathematical analysis , materials science , composite material , operating system , physics , quantum mechanics
The range and rationales for forecasting schemes involving feedback are surveyed. Classic Delphi schemes involve an iterated exchange of information between a small group of experts in the pursuit of efficiencies arising from the ‘collective mind’. In other applications the event or state to be forecast may itself depend upon the forecast, and feedback forecasting schemes can be derived to allow for such reflexivity. Most situations of informational feedback are at least implicitly informational or predictive games, and a recognition of this character may help in understanding the possible or likely outcomes, including their social desirability. Various informational transfer devices such as real time surveys may speed up the process of feedback.