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Forecasting from fallible data: Correcting prediction bias with stein‐rule least squares
Author(s) -
Stanley T. D.
Publication year - 1988
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980070203
Subject(s) - estimator , econometrics , statistics , monte carlo method , series (stratigraphy) , least squares function approximation , regression , computer science , standard error , sample (material) , mathematics , data mining , paleontology , biology , chemistry , chromatography
In the presence of fallible data, standard estimation and forecasting techniques are biased and inconsistent. Surprisingly, the magnitude of this bias tends to increase, and not diminish, in time series applications as more observations become available. A solution to this ever‐present problem, Stein‐rule least squares (SRLS), is offered. It corrects for the bias and inconsistency of traditional estimators and provides a means for significantly improving the predictive accuracy of regression‐based forecasting techniques. A Monte Carlo study of the forecasting accuracy of SRLS, compared to its alternatives reveals its practical significance and small sample behaviour.