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Predicting nuclear incidents
Author(s) -
Chow Tat Chi,
Oliver Robert M.
Publication year - 1988
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980070105
Subject(s) - quantile , core (optical fiber) , nuclear power , nuclear engineering , econometrics , computer science , work (physics) , operations research , statistics , environmental science , mathematics , nuclear physics , physics , engineering , thermodynamics , telecommunications
In this paper we review earlier work in predicting incidents of like severity in nuclear power plants. Attention is focused on nuclear core‐melts which can lead to disastrous releases of radioactivity. By combining engineering knowledge with operational experience, we attempt to predict observable quantities such as the time to the next incident and the number of incidents in a fixed future period. The prior distribution of failure rates is obtained from Rasmussen et al (1975), the well‐known Wash‐1400 study. It is then compared with the Gamma prior, and conditions under which the latter is appropriate to use are discussed. The paper concludes with estimates of the expected time to the first core‐melt, the median and quantiles of time to the next partial core‐melt and the probability that at least one severe incident will occur in the next decade. Operating experience to data indicates that while the failure rate of complete core‐melt has been decreasing, that of partial core‐melt has increased dramatically.