A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning | Zendy

Brauers Jutta | Zendy; Weber Martin | Zendy

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A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning

Author(s) -

Brauers Jutta,

Weber Martin

Publication year - 1988

Publication title -

journal of forecasting

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543

H-Index - 59

eISSN - 1099-131X

pISSN - 0277-6693

DOI - 10.1002/for.3980070104

Subject(s) - computer science , scenario analysis , scenario planning , strategic planning , econometrics , business , economics , statistics , mathematics , marketing

We first present scenario analysis as a qualitative forecasting technique useful for strategic planning. Then we develop an overview of the two classes of methods for scenario analysis described in the literature. Based on both classes, a new method is developed which especially fits the needs of strategic planning. The method can be divided into three stages: 1. Determination of compatible scenarios, 2. Determination of scenario probabilities, and 3. Determination of main scenarios. An example is given to illustrate the method.

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