Forecasting vehicle holdings and usage with a disaggregate choice model | Zendy

Berkowitz Michael K. | Zendy; Gallini Nancy T. | Zendy; Miller Eric J. | Zendy; Wolfe Robert A. | Zendy

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Forecasting vehicle holdings and usage with a disaggregate choice model

Author(s) -

Berkowitz Michael K.,

Gallini Nancy T.,

Miller Eric J.,

Wolfe Robert A.

Publication year - 1987

Publication title -

journal of forecasting

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543

H-Index - 59

eISSN - 1099-131X

pISSN - 0277-6693

DOI - 10.1002/for.3980060404

Subject(s) - strengths and weaknesses , computer science , consumption (sociology) , econometrics , point (geometry) , range (aeronautics) , operations research , economics , engineering , social science , philosophy , geometry , mathematics , epistemology , sociology , aerospace engineering

A case study in which a three‐stage choice model of Canadian household vehicle holdings and usage is used to generate short‐run forecasts of changes in household vehicle usage and gasoline consumption in response to a range of energy‐related policies. The objectives of this case study are to (1) demonstrate the application of disaggregate choice modelling methods to the generation of policy‐relevant forecasts of travel behaviour; (2) draw implications from this forecasting exercise concerning the likely impacts of various energy‐related policies; and (3) assess some of the strengths and weaknesses of the current state‐of‐the‐art of forecasting with disaggregate choice models, using the presented study as a case in point.

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