Premium
Forecasting vehicle holdings and usage with a disaggregate choice model
Author(s) -
Berkowitz Michael K.,
Gallini Nancy T.,
Miller Eric J.,
Wolfe Robert A.
Publication year - 1987
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980060404
Subject(s) - strengths and weaknesses , computer science , consumption (sociology) , econometrics , point (geometry) , range (aeronautics) , operations research , economics , engineering , social science , philosophy , geometry , mathematics , epistemology , sociology , aerospace engineering
A case study in which a three‐stage choice model of Canadian household vehicle holdings and usage is used to generate short‐run forecasts of changes in household vehicle usage and gasoline consumption in response to a range of energy‐related policies. The objectives of this case study are to (1) demonstrate the application of disaggregate choice modelling methods to the generation of policy‐relevant forecasts of travel behaviour; (2) draw implications from this forecasting exercise concerning the likely impacts of various energy‐related policies; and (3) assess some of the strengths and weaknesses of the current state‐of‐the‐art of forecasting with disaggregate choice models, using the presented study as a case in point.