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Small sample properties of quarterly forecast errors
Author(s) -
Sankaran S.
Publication year - 1987
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980060302
Subject(s) - econometrics , forecast error , sample (material) , forecast verification , statistics , statistical hypothesis testing , sample size determination , computer science , economics , mathematics , chemistry , chromatography
There are two basic approaches used in the comparative evaluation of forecasters: (1) Statistical tests of significance of differences in error measures, (2) Ordinal rankings of forecasters. To use the first approach of statistical tests, the forecast error data must satisfy the assumptions underlying those tests. This paper examines the validity of those assumptions by enquiring into the small sample properties of the forecast error data of quarterly forecasts of the U.S. economy.