Premium
Beyond heuristics and biases: A contingency model of judgemental forecasting
Author(s) -
Beach Lee Roy,
Barnes Valerie E.,
ChristensenSzalanski Jay J. J.
Publication year - 1986
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980050302
Subject(s) - heuristics , viewpoints , task (project management) , function (biology) , contingency , computer science , quality (philosophy) , rigour , econometrics , operations research , management science , economics , management , mathematics , epistemology , art , philosophy , geometry , evolutionary biology , visual arts , biology , operating system
The conflicting viewpoints about the quality of judgemental forecasts are examined and a model is proposed that attempts to resolve the conflict. The model sees forecasts as contingent upon the repertory of forecasting strategies that the forecaster brings to the forecasting task, the strategy that he or she selects as a function of the characteristics of the task, and the rigour with which he or she applies the strategy as a function of the motivating characteristics of the environment in which the task is encountered. The implications of differences in subjects' and experimenters' assumptions about which strategies are appropriate in experimental studies are examined, as are the implications of the differences between the motivating aspects of experimental and applied settings on both performance and on the generatizability of the results of experiments to applied judgemental forecasting.