Application of the linear partial information model to forecasting the Swiss timber market

Most often, statistical analyses only provide partial information about the appropriateness of different models, structures and parameters which may underlie the dynamic process that has generated a time series. Linear partial information (LPI), in particular, consists of linear restrictions such as LPI: p a > p b , p a > p c where p a denotes the probability that structure a holds. Fuzzy information of this type can be put to use for decision‐making by LPI analysis. In this paper, LPI analysis is applied to answer the question of whether subsidizing price, given an abnormal disturbance on the timber market, would contribute to continuous forest management, a stated goal of Swiss environmental policy.