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Extraneous expert information
Author(s) -
Clemen Robert T.
Publication year - 1985
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980040403
Subject(s) - operationalization , bayesian probability , prior probability , computer science , posterior probability , information source (mathematics) , decision maker , prior information , econometrics , operations research , statistics , artificial intelligence , mathematics , philosophy , epistemology
When a Bayesian decision maker has to choose among information sources, he should consider the anticipated impact that the information will have on his posterior distribution. In some cases he may determine at the outset that an information source will have no effect on his posterior beliefs, no matter what that source says. Such an information source is called extraneous. In this paper we discuss Bayesian conditions for extraneous information sources, and show a hypothetical example involving experts with overlapping information. Analysis of U.S. weather forecasts demonstrates how this concept can be operationalized to test hypotheses concerning the use of information by forecasters.