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Evaluation of the predictive performance of biased regression estimators
Author(s) -
Friedman David J.,
Montgomery Douglas C.
Publication year - 1985
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980040205
Subject(s) - multicollinearity , leverage (statistics) , estimator , regression analysis , regression , econometrics , statistics , linear regression , computer science , predictive modelling , mathematics
Regression models are widely used in forecasting, either directly as prediction equations, or indirectly as the basis of other procedures. The predictive performance of a regression model can be adversely affected by both multicollinearity and high‐leverage data points. Although biased estimation procedures have been proposed as an alternative to least squares, there has been little analysis of the predictive performance of the resulting equations. This paper discusses the predictive performance of various biased estimators, emphasizing the concept that the predictive region, as well as the strength of the multicollinearity, dictates the choice of appropriate coefficient estimators.