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The use of growth curves in forecasting market development—a review and appraisal
Author(s) -
Meade Nigel
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980030406
Subject(s) - econometrics , consumables , economics , growth curve (statistics) , order (exchange) , value (mathematics) , mathematics , statistics , business , finance , marketing
The growth curves suitable for forecasting market development are identified and described. The underlying theoretical basis, if any, for their use is examined, and published examples of their applications are given. Doubt is cast on the value of long‐term forecasts derived from growth curves applied to markets for consumables. The problems of choice between competing curves are demonstrated by means of some examples. The requirements that a growth curve should meet in order to be an appropriate forecasting tool are identified and illustrated. Many of the published examples of growth curve use are shown to be vulnerable to criticism under one or more of these criteria.