Premium
Forecasting quality and information
Author(s) -
Brockhoff Klaus
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980030405
Subject(s) - computer science , quality (philosophy) , demand forecasting , delphi method , delphi , institution , process (computing) , econometrics , information system , operations research , economics , artificial intelligence , mathematics , philosophy , epistemology , political science , law , operating system , electrical engineering , engineering
It is assumed that demand for information that subjectively appears to be relevant for forecasting improves forecasting quality. To study this hypothesis a number of forecasting experiments were conducted. Fifty managers from the housing business, from banking, and from a research institution were asked to forecast interest rates, using a Delphi process. They communicated via a computer system, and, to support their judgements, they had access to a data bank that was stored in the same system. Their communication with the system was automatically recorded. Part of the data collected in these experiments is used to study the existence of a relationship between information activities and forecasting results. A weak positive relationship is found if non‐linear functions are tested, where information demand is corrected by those data retrievals that seem to have resulted from an inability to handle the information system. For further research a more general, albeit less informative, Boolean model is suggested.