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Forecasting future canadian residential heating demand: An illustration of forecasting with aggregated and disaggregated data
Author(s) -
Berkowitz M. K.,
Haines G. H.
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980030209
Subject(s) - econometrics , aggregate (composite) , reliability (semiconductor) , sensitivity (control systems) , economics , logistic regression , logit , environmental science , statistics , mathematics , engineering , power (physics) , materials science , physics , quantum mechanics , electronic engineering , composite material
This paper examines the sensitivity of forecasts to the level of aggregation of the data. A relative shares regression model and a multinominal logit model are tested with both aggregate and disaggregate survey data from 2109 respondents. The results indicate the appropriate model to use depends on whether the data are disaggregate or aggregate in form. Forecasts of solar heating of dwelling unit demand and market shares are also reported for Canada in terms of the solar price relative to the natural gas price and solar reliability relative to natural gas reliability.