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New product forecasting
Author(s) -
Assmus Gert
Publication year - 1984
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980030202
Subject(s) - product (mathematics) , technology forecasting , new product development , demand forecasting , sales forecasting , computer science , risk analysis (engineering) , operations research , marketing , business , artificial intelligence , engineering , geometry , mathematics
Forecasting new‐product performance has been called ‘one of the most difficult and critical management tasks’. It has attracted considerable attention because of the magnitude of the resources devoted to product development and because of the sizeable risks involved in making the go–no‐go decisions. In comparison with forecasting sales for established products, there is no sales history, or more generally, the company has no product specific experience related to consumer acceptance, trade support and competitive reactions. This article first presents a review of new product forecasting techniques with an emphasis given to the more recent developments in forecasting models. Then, forecasting procedures are assessed by discussing their benefits and their costs. The third part of the article discusses trends in new product forecasting.