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Municipal budget forecasting with multivariate ARMA models
Author(s) -
Downs G. W.,
Rocke D. M.
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980020407
Subject(s) - univariate , multivariate statistics , econometrics , multivariate analysis , autoregressive–moving average model , autoregressive integrated moving average , series (stratigraphy) , time series , statistics , computer science , economics , mathematics , autoregressive model , paleontology , biology
In this paper multivariate ARMA models are applied to the problem of forecasting city budget variables. Unlike univariate time‐series methods, multivariate models can use relationships among budget variables as well as relationships with economic and demographic indicators. Although available budget series are shorter than what is usually believed necessary for multivariate ARMA modelling, the forecasts seem to be of higher quality than those from univariate models.