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Price forecasting and evaluation: An application in agriculture
Author(s) -
Brandt Jon A.,
Bessler David A.
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980020306
Subject(s) - exponential smoothing , econometrics , judgement , volatility (finance) , autoregressive integrated moving average , economics , consensus forecast , probabilistic forecasting , technology forecasting , autoregressive model , demand forecasting , computer science , moving average , time series , machine learning , artificial intelligence , probabilistic logic , operations management , political science , law , computer vision
Because of the high volatility of prices of agricultural commodities over the past decade, the importance of accurate price forecasting for decision makers has become even more acute. This paper reviews literature on forecasting and evaluation. An application with forecasting U.S. hog prices is presented which includes both economic and statistical evaluation measures. Seven forecasting approaches are described and their performances are examined over 24 quarters from 1976 to 1981. These methods include exponential smoothing, an autoregressive integrated moving average process, an econometric model, expert judgement, and a composite forecasting approach. The application gives results which support previous findings in the forecasting literature and suggests that forecasting methods can provide valuable information to the decision maker.