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A model of an average recession and recovery
Author(s) -
McLaughlin Robert L.
Publication year - 1982
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.3980010107
Subject(s) - recession , series (stratigraphy) , computer science , macro , econometrics , simple (philosophy) , time series , operations research , economics , macroeconomics , machine learning , mathematics , paleontology , philosophy , epistemology , biology , programming language
This paper proposes an Average Recession/Recovery Model (ARRM). It discusses the reasons why such a model is needed and how it can be developed. Major utilities of the model are (1) it is an extremely simple way to display complex forecasts to management graphically, (2) it can be applied to a single time series–with monthly or quarterly data–and is applicable to a large proportion of time series, both macro and micro, (3) it is easy to calculate, to understand, to program and to communicate with it and (4) it employs widely accepted statistical and economic methods.