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Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries
Author(s) -
Seklecka Malgorzata,
Md. Lazam Norazliani,
Pantelous Athanasios A.,
O'Hare Colin
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.2550
Subject(s) - socioeconomic status , gross domestic product , proxy (statistics) , economics , econometrics , demographic economics , demography , macroeconomics , statistics , mathematics , sociology , population
Socioeconomic status is commonly conceptualized as the social standing or well‐being of an individual or society. Higher socioeconomic status has long been identified as a contributing factor for mortality improvement. This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations (having gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy) on mortality for the nine most populous eurozone countries. Based on the statistical analysis between the time‐dependent indicator of the Lee and Carter ( Journal of the American Statistical Association , 1992, 87 (419), 659–671) model and GDP, and adaptation of the good features of the O'Hare and Li ( Insurance: Mathematics and Economics , 2012, 50 , 12–25) model, a new mortality model including this additional economic‐related factor is proposed. Results for male and female from ages between 0 and 89, and similar for unisex data, are provided. This new model shows a better fitting and more plausible forecast among a significant number of eurozone countries. An in‐depth analysis of our findings is provided to give a better understanding of the relationship between mortality and GDP fluctuations.