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Do US Macroeconomic Forecasters Exaggerate their Differences?
Author(s) -
Clements Michael P.
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
journal of forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.543
H-Index - 59
eISSN - 1099-131X
pISSN - 0277-6693
DOI - 10.1002/for.2358
Subject(s) - herding , economics , inflation (cosmology) , survey of professional forecasters , econometrics , point (geometry) , financial economics , monetary economics , monetary policy , mathematics , physics , geometry , theoretical physics , forestry , geography
Application of the Bernhardt et al. ( Journal of Financial Economics 2006; 80 (3): 657–675) test of herding to the calendar‐year annual output growth and inflation forecasts suggests forecasters tend to exaggerate their differences, except at the shortest horizon, when they tend to herd. We consider whether these types of behaviour can help to explain the puzzle that professional forecasters sometimes make point predictions and histogram forecasts which are mutually inconsistent. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.