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Deciphering the past to inform the future: preparing for the next (“really big”) extreme event
Author(s) -
Peters Debra PC,
Burruss N Dylan,
Okin Gregory S,
Hatfield Jerry L,
Scroggs Stacey LP,
Huang Haitao,
Brungard Colby W,
Yao Jin
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
frontiers in ecology and the environment
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.918
H-Index - 164
eISSN - 1540-9309
pISSN - 1540-9295
DOI - 10.1002/fee.2194
Subject(s) - environmental science , loess , climate change , scale (ratio) , boundary (topology) , psychological resilience , ecosystem , precipitation , floodplain , environmental resource management , geography , physical geography , geology , ecology , meteorology , cartography , geomorphology , psychotherapist , biology , psychology , mathematical analysis , oceanography , mathematics
Climate change will bring more extremes in temperature and precipitation that will impact productivity and ecosystem resilience throughout agroecosystems worldwide. Historical events can be used to identify drivers that impact future events. A catastrophic drought in the US in the 1930s resulted in an abrupt boundary between areas severely impacted by the Dust Bowl and areas that were less severely affected. Historical primary production data confirmed the location of this boundary at the border between two states (Nebraska and Iowa). Local drivers of weather and soils explained production responses across the boundary before and after the drought (1926–1948). During the drought, however, features at the landscape scale (soil properties and wind velocities) and regional scale (the Missouri River, its floodplain, and the nearby Loess Hills) explained most of the observed variance in primary production. The impact of future extreme events may be affected by land surface properties that either accentuate or ameliorate the effects of these events. Consideration of large‐scale geomorphic processes may be necessary to interpret and manage for catastrophic events.