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Probability of emergence of novel temperature regimes at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions
Author(s) -
Diffenbaugh Noah S,
Charland Allison
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
frontiers in ecology and the environment
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.918
H-Index - 164
eISSN - 1540-9309
pISSN - 1540-9295
DOI - 10.1002/fee.1320
Subject(s) - environmental science , climate change , limiting , baseline (sea) , greenhouse gas , climatology , cumulative effects , cumulative distribution function , atmospheric sciences , mean radiant temperature , climate model , probability density function , statistics , mathematics , ecology , physics , engineering , mechanical engineering , oceanography , biology , geology
The United Nations Paris Agreement creates new urgency and importance for understanding the emergence of climate impacts at different levels of cumulative carbon emissions. Using observations and climate models, we quantify the probability that different areas of the globe will experience permanent separation from the historical temperature regime, as a function of both time and cumulative emissions. We find that, in addition to a ~50% probability that global warming will exceed 2°C, cumulative emissions of 1000 gigatons of carbon (GtC) are likely to cause large areas of the tropics to transition to a new climate regime in which the annual temperature is never less than four standard deviations above the baseline mean. Although limiting cumulative emissions to 750 GtC substantially reduces these risks, the likelihood that some regions will still permanently experience extremely high annual temperatures suggests a critical role for adaptation, even if the Paris Agreement's mitigation targets are met.