Open AccessGrid‐based simulation method for spatial electric load forecasting using power‐law distribution with fractal exponent
Author(s) -
Melo Joel D.,
Carreno Edgar M.,
PadilhaFeltrin Antonio,
Minussi Carlos R.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
international transactions on electrical energy systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.428
H-Index - 42
ISSN - 2050-7038
DOI - 10.1002/etep.2151
Subject(s) - fractal , grid , computer science , exponent , power law , power (physics) , work (physics) , distribution (mathematics) , spatial distribution , simulation , mathematical optimization , engineering , mathematics , statistics , geometry , mathematical analysis , philosophy , linguistics , physics , quantum mechanics , mechanical engineering
Summary A grid‐based simulation method to forecast the spatial growth of load density in a distribution utility service zone is presented. The future load density is simulated considering a city's dynamic growth. A power‐law distribution with fractal exponent is used to determine how much the load density will increase/decrease depending on different factors like: natural growth following patterns, spontaneous new loads without predefined patterns, and urban poles growth that attract/repel new consumers. These factors are simulated using two modules that exchange information. The final result will display a map with future load density considering a heterogeneous distribution, which is the main contribution of this work. The method is tested on a real distribution system in a medium‐sized Brazilian city. The most important characteristic of this method is its high efficiency in spatial load density recognition with less input data than traditional spatial load forecasting methodologies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.