Open AccessHolidays short‐term load forecasting using fuzzy improved similar day method
Author(s) -
Ebrahimi Akbar,
Moshari Amir
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
international transactions on electrical energy systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.428
H-Index - 42
ISSN - 2050-7038
DOI - 10.1002/etep.1650
Subject(s) - term (time) , fuzzy logic , computer science , grid , real time computing , reliability engineering , operations research , engineering , artificial intelligence , geography , geodesy , physics , quantum mechanics
SUMMARY Holidays load forecasting is one of the most challenging topics in the short‐term load forecasting area. This is mainly due to different load behaviors and insufficient samples of holidays compared with the normal weekdays. This paper proposes an effective method for holidays short‐term load forecasting that is robust to face with holidays of lunar year and simple for practical applications. The first step is to identify the essential characteristics of the holiday's profiles. For each characteristic, one similar day is selected. The essential load characteristics of the intended holiday are derived from these similar days. The holiday's load is forecasted by combining these characteristics and then will be modified using a fuzzy method. The proposed method has been implemented on Isfahan grid. Results show the proper performance of the proposed method especially for the holidays from the lunar year, which are varying compared with the solar year. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.