Weighing the evidence of ecological risk from chemical contamination in the estuarine environment adjacent to the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, Kittery, Maine, USA

In characterizing ecological risks, considerable consensus building and professional judgments are required to develop conclusions about risk. This is because how to evaluate all the factors that determine ecological risk is not well defined and is subject to interpretation. Here we report on the application of a procedure to weigh the evidence of ecological risk and develop conclusions about risk that will incorporate the strengths and weaknesses of the assessment. The procedure was applied to characterize ecological risk of chemical contamination in nearshore areas adjacent to the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, located at the mouth of the Great Bay Estuary, New Hampshire and Maine, USA. Measures of exposure and effect were used to interpret the magnitude of risk to the assessment endpoints of pelagic species, epibenthic species, the benthic community, eelgrass plants, the salt marsh community, and avian receptors. The evidence of chemical exposure from water, sediment, and tissue and the evidence of biological effects to representative pelagic, epibenthic, benthic, eelgrass, salt marsh, and avian species were weighed to characterize ecological risk. Individual measures were weighted by the quality and reliability of their data and risk was estimated from the preponderance, magnitude, extent, and strength of causal relationships between the data on exposure and effects. Relating evidence of risk to hypothesized pathways of exposure made it possible to estimate the magnitude of risk from sediment and water and express the confidence associated with the findings. Systematically weighing the evidence of risk rendered conclusions about risk in a manner that was clearly defined, objective, consistent, and did not rely solely on professional judgment.