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Challenges in forecasting the long‐term impacts of multiple stressors on a mid‐Atlantic region, USA
Author(s) -
Carpenter Dean E.,
Lunetta Ross S.
Publication year - 2000
Publication title -
environmental toxicology and chemistry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.1
H-Index - 171
eISSN - 1552-8618
pISSN - 0730-7268
DOI - 10.1002/etc.5620190438
Subject(s) - stressor , hazard , hazard analysis , baseline (sea) , identification (biology) , environmental resource management , vulnerability (computing) , environmental science , computer science , ecology , biology , engineering , computer security , neuroscience , fishery , aerospace engineering
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, has selected a multistate region in the mid‐Atlantic as a pilot location for its regional vulnerability assessment initiative. The study included an initial problem‐formulation (hazard‐identification) phase conducted in consultation with local stakeholders. Nine ecological hazard (stressor) categories were selected for study based on scientific criteria and resource limitations. Initial products included one or more stressor data sets (profiles) for each hazard category, which represented an initial attempt at creating a continuous baseline database necessary for subsequent ecosystem exposure assessment. Stressor profiles were developed from the interpolation of monitoring network point data, modeling forecasts, and the processing of continuous data sets. Disparate data resolutions and temporal inconsistences among profiles will require that uncertainties for each profile be documented during multiple stressor analysis. Such uncertainties in data quality must be effectively portrayed to illustrate how they can limit profile utility during quantitative exposure analysis. Current research efforts have focused on the identification of ecosystem receptor endpoints of critical importance to maintaining ecosystem function in the mid‐Atlantic. This research includes the establishment of stressor–receptor exposure period, magnitude, and duration of biological importance in an initial survey‐level analysis to support the selection of stressors and receptors for exposure assessment analysis. Subsequent to this selection process, receptor data sets will be assembled at appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions commensurate with the exposure pathway processes of interest. Exposure profiles will be developed based on the cooccurrence of both stressor and receptor in both space and time required to represent a biologically significant exposure.