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An alternative avian population estimate for overdispersed populations for use in mark‐recapture studies of pesticide effects
Author(s) -
Madrigal J.L.,
Carter M.W.,
Parrish J.R.,
Booth G.M.,
Fischer D.L.
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
environmental toxicology and chemistry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.1
H-Index - 171
eISSN - 1552-8618
pISSN - 0730-7268
DOI - 10.1002/etc.5620120712
Subject(s) - mark and recapture , statistics , negative binomial distribution , population size , population , binomial (polynomial) , count data , mathematics , econometrics , binomial distribution , poisson distribution , demography , sociology
Statistical models that have been commonly applied to mark‐recapture/resighting data, such as the Jolly‐Seber estimate, assume that capture and recapture/resighting probabilities are constant for all birds. This assumption is likely false. An alternative approach that is based on the beta‐binomial distribution that allows for heterogeneous capture/recapture is presented. Use of the approach is illustrated with data obtained in a field study of NEMACUR® 15G applications. A total of 24,000 simulations indicated that the power of the beta‐binomial in detecting a 10% reduction in survival varies from 56.2 to 99% in resighting data and is more than 84% in recapture data. Population estimates were obtained using the maximum likelihood method. Under conditions of heterogeneous probabilities, more precise estimates of population size were produced with this approach than with the Jolly‐Seber method.