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Risk assessment by analysis of extrapolation error: A demonstration for effects of pollutants on fish
Author(s) -
Suter G. W.,
Vaughan D. S.,
Gardner R. H.
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
environmental toxicology and chemistry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.1
H-Index - 171
eISSN - 1552-8618
pISSN - 0730-7268
DOI - 10.1002/etc.5620020313
Subject(s) - extrapolation , toxicant , risk assessment , statistics , chronic toxicity , regression analysis , fish <actinopterygii> , pollutant , environmental science , regression , toxicity , toxicology , mathematics , biology , ecology , chemistry , fishery , computer science , computer security , organic chemistry
Abstract This article describes a new method for risk assessment and applies it to assessing the risk of chronic toxicity of mercury to largemouth bass. The method consists of extrapolation between taxa and between toxicity test types by regression analysis. The variance terms in the regression analyses are combined with the point estimate of the geometric mean of the maximum allowable toxic concentration (GMATC) to derive a probability distribution of the GMATC. This distribution is then compared to the ambient contaminant concentration to derive the probability or risk of chronic toxicity. This general approach to risk analysis is applicable to any organism or toxicant.