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Error analysis of predicted fate of anthracene in a simulated pond
Author(s) -
Bartell Steven M.,
Gardner Robert H.,
O'Neill Robert V.,
Giddings Jeffrey M.
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
environmental toxicology and chemistry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.1
H-Index - 171
eISSN - 1552-8618
pISSN - 0730-7268
DOI - 10.1002/etc.5620020102
Subject(s) - anthracene , bioaccumulation , environmental chemistry , macrophyte , environmental science , benthic zone , bioconcentration , dry weight , biota , volatilisation , chemistry , ecology , biology , botany , organic chemistry
Statistical regressions that relate rates of transport processes to chemical characteristics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were used to estimate parameters in a model that predicts the fate of a simulated anthracene spill onto the surface (25 m 2 ) of a 12.5 m 3 pond ecosystem. During 60 d following a simulated spill of 2.0 g/m 2 anthracene, predicted concentration in sediments peaked at 550 μg/m 2 . Predicted bioaccumulation was maximal in rooted macrophytes (0.35 μg/g dry weight), followed by benthic invertebrates (0.23 μg/g dry weight) and zooplankton (0.04 μg/g dry weight). Precision of predicted concentrations depends upon precise estimation of model parameters that define maximum water solubility and that regulate photolytic degradation, volatilization, sorption and bioaccumulation of anthracene. In 200 simulations, values of 29 model parameters were chosen at random from distributions with standard deviations that ranged between 0.5 and 53% of their means. Results demonstrate greater precision in predictions of the relative distribution of anthracene among water, sediments and total biota than precision of predicted concentrations of individual pond components.