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Developing strategies for robust energy systems. I: Methodology
Author(s) -
Larsson Tomas,
Wene ClasOtto
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
international journal of energy research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.808
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1099-114X
pISSN - 0363-907X
DOI - 10.1002/er.4440170606
Subject(s) - robustness (evolution) , energy planning , energy system , efficient energy use , energy (signal processing) , risk analysis (engineering) , context (archaeology) , engineering , computer science , operations research , renewable energy , business , mathematics , paleontology , biochemistry , chemistry , statistics , biology , electrical engineering , gene
Strategic energy planning is concerned with investments in energy technologies with long lead times and long life times. Of special interest are uncertainties about future developments that could lead to a major reappraisal of the cost‐efficiency of different energy technologies. Decision making in this context is concerned, therefore, with finding a solution to the decision problem which is both low‐cost and robust. Here, a method is described for using hedging to improve the robustness of the energy system. The method is applied using a standard energy systems model, MARKAL. It is shown how the model results can be used for a quantitative analysis of the robustness of the energy system. A study of the Swedish energy system is used as an example, where the uncertain factor is whether or not future restrictions on CO 2 emissions will be imposed.