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Analysis of the Lithuanian final energy consumption using fuzzy sets
Author(s) -
Oder Carsten,
Haasis HansDietrich,
Rentz Otto
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
international journal of energy research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.808
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1099-114X
pISSN - 0363-907X
DOI - 10.1002/er.4440170106
Subject(s) - lithuanian , restructuring , energy consumption , consumption (sociology) , fuzzy logic , economics , energy policy , energy market , energy (signal processing) , economy , econometrics , computer science , engineering , electricity , mathematics , finance , renewable energy , statistics , social science , philosophy , linguistics , artificial intelligence , sociology , electrical engineering
In the paper, the development of final energy consumption in Lithuania, on the basis of realistic economic scenarios, is investigated. The main parameters influencing the energy consumption are the gross national product (GNP) and the wholesale price of energy. Owing to the uncertainties in former socialist economies, these parameters are described as ‘fuzzy sets.’ The theory of fuzzy sets is used to study the influences that the prices of preceding periods have on the actual final energy consumption, with a quasidynamic model. In so far as this mechanism cannot be ascertained for Lithuania, experiences with other former centrally planned economies, which have already turned into a kind of market economy, are applied to give realistic projections for the transitory period. The underlying scenarios for the GNP and price developments are taken from official Lithuanian projections. The results of the fuzzy quasidynamic model are compared with the official final energy demand projections, to provide policy advice for a proper restructuring of the energy system.