Premium
Effects of oil on output growth and inflation in developing countries: The case of Thailand from January 1966 to January 1991
Author(s) -
van Hoa Tran
Publication year - 1993
Publication title -
international journal of energy research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.808
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1099-114X
pISSN - 0363-907X
DOI - 10.1002/er.4440170105
Subject(s) - cointegration , economics , bivariate analysis , inflation (cosmology) , consumption (sociology) , econometrics , granger causality , oil consumption , inflation rate , causality (physics) , macroeconomics , monetary economics , interest rate , mathematics , statistics , engineering , physics , theoretical physics , social science , quantum mechanics , sociology , automotive engineering
The paper reports the results of a simple cointegration analysis applied to bivariate causality models and quarterly data on crude oil consumption, GDP and inflation in Thailand to investigate the long‐term relationships in the sense of Granger between oil and these two major macroeconomic aggregates. For the period from January 1966 to January 1991, the empirical evidence indicates that oil consumption, output growth and inflation rate, as formulated in our models, are not random walks. In addition, oil consumption is significantly cointegrated with economic growth and, unfortunately, inflation rate.