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The accuracy of a long‐term forecast: Canadian energy requirements
Author(s) -
Daub M.,
Petersen E.
Publication year - 1981
Publication title -
international journal of energy research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.808
H-Index - 95
eISSN - 1099-114X
pISSN - 0363-907X
DOI - 10.1002/er.4440050204
Subject(s) - term (time) , range (aeronautics) , variance (accounting) , econometrics , energy (signal processing) , environmental science , statistics , energy demand , economics , engineering , mathematics , environmental economics , accounting , physics , quantum mechanics , aerospace engineering
The paper reports on an investigation of the accuaracy over the first ten years of the long‐range Canadian energy forecast made in 1966 for the period 1967‐1990. In keeping with the traditional methodology of accuracy evaluation, absolute and relative measures of percentage change predictions of energy demand (total and by sector) and supply (total and by source) are examined. Several major conditions emerge among the more improtant of which are that these long‐term forecasts compare favourably with the results of similar analysis of short‐term forecasting accuracy and that there appears to be no overall bias present in the total energy forecasts (although the variance was poorly anticiapted).