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The Haicheng, China, earthquake of 4 February 1975; the first successfully predicted major earthquake
Author(s) -
Adams R. D.
Publication year - 1976
Publication title -
earthquake engineering and structural dynamics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.218
H-Index - 127
eISSN - 1096-9845
pISSN - 0098-8847
DOI - 10.1002/eqe.4290040502
Subject(s) - foreshock , seismology , earthquake prediction , geology , induced seismicity , magnitude (astronomy) , china , urban seismic risk , earthquake casualty estimation , geography , aftershock , seismic hazard , archaeology , physics , astronomy
The earthquake of magnitude 7.3 that occurred near the town of Haicheng in north‐east China on 4 February 1975 was the first major earthquake anywhere in the world known to have been predicted with enough certainty for people to have been warned, and measures taken for civil protection. These steps were successful in keeping the number of casualties small. This paper describes a visit to the affected area seven and a half months after the earthquake, and discussions with Chinese scientists about their successful prediction methods. The prediction resulted from the synthesis of many types of investigation, but the main methods used for long‐, mid‐ and short‐term prediction appear to have been based on studies of seismicity, deformation and foreshocks respectively.