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Critical uncertainty parameters influencing seismic performance of bridges using Lasso regression
Author(s) -
Mangalathu Sujith,
Jeon JongSu,
DesRoches Reginald
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
earthquake engineering and structural dynamics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.218
H-Index - 127
eISSN - 1096-9845
pISSN - 0098-8847
DOI - 10.1002/eqe.2991
Subject(s) - elastic net regularization , fragility , lasso (programming language) , censoring (clinical trials) , regression , econometrics , regression analysis , bridge (graph theory) , linear regression , variable (mathematics) , uncertainty quantification , computer science , statistics , mathematics , world wide web , medicine , mathematical analysis , chemistry
Summary Recent efforts of regional risk assessment of structures often pose a challenge in dealing with the potentially variable uncertain input parameters. The source of uncertainties can be either epistemic or aleatoric. This article identifies uncertain variables exhibiting strongest influences on the seismic demand of bridge components through various regression techniques such as linear, stepwise, Ridge, Lasso, and elastic net regressions. The statistical results indicate that Lasso regression is the most effective one in predicting the demand model as it has the lowest mean square error and absolute error. As the sensitivity study identifies more than 1 significant variable, a multiparameter fragility model using Lasso regression is suggested in this paper. The proposed fragility methodology is able to identify the relative impact of each uncertain input variable and level of treatment needed for these variables in the estimation of seismic demand models and fragility curves. Thus, the proposed approach helps bridge owners to spend their resources judiciously (e.g., data collection, field investigations, and censoring) in the generation of a more reliable database for regional risk assessment. This proposed approach can be applicable to other structures.

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