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Uncertainties in lung cancer risk estimates reported for exposure to environmental tobacco smoke
Author(s) -
Gross Alan J.
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
environmetrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.68
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1099-095X
pISSN - 1180-4009
DOI - 10.1002/env.3170060409
Subject(s) - tobacco smoke , lung cancer , environmental health , risk assessment , range (aeronautics) , smoke , agency (philosophy) , econometrics , environmental science , medicine , economics , geography , engineering , meteorology , oncology , management , aerospace engineering , philosophy , epistemology
The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in its recent risk assessment dealing with environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), estimated the annual number of lung cancer deaths in non‐smokers (including both never‐smokers and former‐smokers who have quit smoking for at least five years) associated with ETS exposure to be between 2500 and 3300 in the United States. This estimate is based on a number of assumptions that are not supported by the existing data. Moreover, the range presented by EPA fails to take into account the uncertainties involved in this estimate. This paper discusses the significant assumptions that underlie any quantitation of lung cancer risks allegedly due to ETS exposure, and explores the uncertainties of each assumption and how each uncertainty affects the summary estimate. The author concludes that any range must encompass an estimate of zero deaths, and that the uncertainties are so great as to cast serious doubt on the use of any quantitative estimate.