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Dionysus: a stochastic fire growth scenario generator
Author(s) -
Han Lengyi,
John Braun W.
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
environmetrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.68
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1099-095X
pISSN - 1180-4009
DOI - 10.1002/env.2236
Subject(s) - front (military) , computer science , generator (circuit theory) , stochastic modelling , meteorology , probability distribution , simulation , mathematics , statistics , geography , power (physics) , physics , quantum mechanics
The Prometheus Fire Growth Model is a deterministic wildfire simulator. Given weather, topographical and fuel information, the simulated fire front is plotted at equally spaced times. Unpredictability of fire behavior makes deterministic predictions inaccurate. By statistically modeling the data to which the model equations are fit, it is possible to obtain a distribution of fire front predictions. If the weather forecast is reliable, repeated stochastic simulation is not required, so probability contours require no more computing time than what is required for a single deterministic contour. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.