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Uncertainty due to low‐dose extrapolation: modified BMD methodology for epidemiological data
Author(s) -
Whitney Melissa,
Ryan Louise
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
environmetrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.68
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 1099-095X
pISSN - 1180-4009
DOI - 10.1002/env.2217
Subject(s) - epidemiology , extrapolation , statistics , environmental health , cohort , population , estimation , cohort study , econometrics , benchmark (surveying) , medicine , computer science , mathematics , engineering , geography , systems engineering , geodesy
Traditional environmental risk assessment methodologies, including benchmark dose ( BMD ) estimation, were originally developed to be used with animal toxicology data. We discuss some problems that can occur when toxicology‐based methods are applied to human cohort studies, and we propose a new method for BMD risk estimation adapted to epidemiological data. Instead of extrapolating to zero‐dose levels to estimate risk in an unexposed population, our proposed alternative involves specifying a nonzero background exposure level instead. To account for uncertainty in that level, we can average modified BMD s over a distribution of exposure levels. We apply our modified BMD method to analyze data from a cohort study designed to assess the effects of prenatal polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) exposure on cognitive ability in young children. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.