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Envisioning futures for climate change policy development: Scenarios use in European environmental policy institutions
Author(s) -
Bryson Jessica,
Piper Jake,
Rounsevell Mark
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
environmental policy and governance
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.987
H-Index - 48
eISSN - 1756-9338
pISSN - 1756-932X
DOI - 10.1002/eet.542
Subject(s) - futures contract , scenario planning , agency (philosophy) , climate change , work (physics) , european commission , scenario analysis , downscaling , policy analysis , environmental resource management , environmental planning , political science , business , public administration , sociology , economics , european union , engineering , marketing , environmental science , finance , mechanical engineering , ecology , social science , biology , economic policy
Scenario‐based exercises can contribute to policy debates on climate change responses, intended to help policy‐makers visualize future worlds and help guide and develop adaptive strategies. This study explores the use of scenarios by policy‐advisors within three institutions: the European Environment Agency, the European Commission and Scottish public bodies. Respondents pointed to different approaches to scenario identification and use as well as barriers to wider use of the method. A range of benefits of using scenarios was highlighted. Amongst the suggestions for better implementation offered by interviewees was the need for a scenario toolkit. An array of scenario systems (representing both climate change scenarios and socio‐economic scenarios) are being used by policy‐advisors and the paper concludes that the role for scenario exercises in planning and communications work derives from their capacity to develop imaginative thinking. Recommendations are proposed for improving practice. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.