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Forecasting of solar irradiance with just‐in‐time modeling
Author(s) -
Suzuki Takanobu,
Goto Yusuke,
Terazono Takahiro,
Wakao Shinji,
Oozeki Takashi
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
electrical engineering in japan
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.136
H-Index - 28
eISSN - 1520-6416
pISSN - 0424-7760
DOI - 10.1002/eej.22338
Subject(s) - irradiance , solar irradiance , photovoltaic system , meteorology , environmental science , solar resource , computer science , remote sensing , engineering , electrical engineering , geography , optics , physics
PV power output mainly depends on solar irradiance, which is affected by various meteorological factors. Thus, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecasting, in which we combine the black–box model (JIT modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over a wide controlled area of each electric power company by utilizing measured data from 44 observation points throughout Japan provided by JMA and 64 points around Kanto provided by NEDO. Finally, we propose an applied forecasting method of solar irradiance to deal with difficulties in compiling databases. We also consider the influence of different GPV default times on solar irradiance prediction. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electr Eng Jpn, 182(4): 19–28, 2013; Published online in Wiley Online Library ( wileyonlinelibrary.com ). DOI 10.1002/eej.22338